This was a remarkable discussion with Judge Andrew Napolitano which covered a broad array of latest developments from and about Ukraine's war with Russia. To be sure, the visit of Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary Lammy to Kiev yesterday, together with the forthcoming meeting of British Prime Minister Starmer and Joe Biden in the White House were central to our chat: the removal of all restrictions on Kiev's use of the long-range offensive weapons supplied to them by U.S., British and other NATO countries crosses a well-defined Russian red line and may set in train a rapid escalation to nuclear war.
We both commented on the sang froid of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in his discourse before the assembled Russian ambassadors this morning even as he set out the Kremlin's take on the crossing of those red lines. All of which induced me to mention on air my latest exchange of views on this same issue with Ray McGovern and his insistence that Putin's full response to any attack on his country using Western supplied missiles will come only after the American elections on 5 November, not in the days just before us, as I had been saying as recently as yesterday. On reconsideration, I join Ray on this point and advise subscribers not to cancel luncheon dates in October now in their agendas, nor to practice ducking under their work desks when sirens go off just yet.
Putin and his advisers see the trap being set for them by Washington as well as we do, namely that responding in a violent way to such an attack would give the Americans a pretext for opening a full-blown war for the sake of assuring Kamela Harris's electoral victory through the rally round the flag phenomenon in wartime. Such a 'trap' might seem to be insane, but unfortunately it reflects the mindset of those in the Biden administration who are setting policy. Shall we say, planning is all very short term.
So how might Putin respond to a Storm Shadow attack now that causes great physical damage to civilian infrastructure in the Russian Federation proper such as the Kerch (Crimea) bridge? Perhaps by pursuing the supply of advanced weaponry to Washington's enemies in the Middle East as Russia intimated it would do a couple of months ago. We might just see a suggestion that this is coming in what happened in Syria a couple of days ago when it was reported that the Bashar Assad's military shot down an Israeli military jet that violated Syrian air space. That is the first incident of its kind and surely it was achieved using Russian air defense equipment that either did not exist previously or was not allowed by the Russians to be used so casually. Surely the Houthis or Hezbollah would know how to put to good use any Russian Iskanders or Kinzhals that may come their way.
One particularly interesting item in today's chat with Judge Napolitano concerned a video clip he put up on the screen showing U.S. Defense Secretary Austin responding a week ago to a reporter's question about why the U.S. was not yet granting Kiev the right to use its missiles as it sees fit. I will not spoil your enjoyment of the interview but let you savor our remarks at your leisure.
Dr. Gilbert Doctorow: Russian Politics and the Ukraine War
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024